• In 2010, there were 40.3 million people aged 65 and older, 12 times the number in 1900.
• The percentage of the population aged 65 and over among the total population increased from 4.1% in 1900 to 13% in 2010 and is projected to reach 20.9% by 2050.
• From 2010 onwards, the older dependency ratio — the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64 — is expected to rise sharply as the baby boomers enter the older ages. In 2030, when all baby boomers will have already passed age 65, the older dependency ratio is expected to be 37, which translates into fewer than three people of working age (20 to 64) to support every older person.
The data in this last bullet especially caught my attention. While we boomers like to brag about the positive influence we’ve had in the world, by our shear presence we are creating some significant challenges for our children and grandchildren as we grow older. This challenge also is evident as one looks at health and health care data from the study:
• Over 38% of those aged 65 and over had one or more disability in 2010, with the most common difficulties being walking, climbing stairs and doing errands alone.
• Changing marital trends, such as the rise of divorces, as well as the increase in living alone among the 65-and-over population, will likely alter the social support needs of aging baby boomers.
• Rates of smoking and excessive alcohol consumption have declined among those 65 and older, but the percentage of overweight and obese people has increased. Between 2003 and 2006, 72% of older men and 67% of older women were overweight or obese. Obesity is associated with increased rates of diabetes, arthritis, and impaired mobility, and in some cases, with higher death rates.
• Research based on NIA’s Health and Retirement Study suggests that the prevalence of chronic diseases such as high blood pressure, heart disease, chronic lung disease, and diabetes, increased among older people between 1998 and 2008. For example, in 2008, 41% of the older population had three or more chronic conditions, 51% had one or two, and only 8% had no chronic conditions.
• The cost of long-term care varies by care setting. The average cost of a private room in a nursing home was $229 per day or $83,585 per year in 2010. Less than one-fifth of older people have the personal financial resources to live in a nursing home for more than three years and almost two-thirds cannot afford even one year. Medicare provides coverage in a skilled nursing facility to older and disabled patients for short time periods following hospitalization. Medicaid covers long-term care in certified facilities for qualifying low-income seniors. In 2006, Medicaid paid for 43 percent of long-term care.
All of this begs a question used often in Luther’s Small Catechism: What does this mean? For those of us who are interested in the church’s role in a changing world, a variation of this question is: “What does this mean for the Christian church as it reaches out in Christ’s name with health and hope to people in need?” I’m pondering this and hope to share some thoughts in future installments of Rick’s Reflections. In the meantime, I’d welcome your comments, whether you are a fellow boomer or a person from another generation who has to put up with us boomers. Blessings!
